Pay-TV Subscribers Worldwide Will Continue to Grow by High Single-Digits in 2009, Pyramid Research Forecasts
May 6, 2009
Pay-TV subscribers are expected to grow by 8 percent in 2009 to reach nearly 733 million worldwide despite the challenging economic environment, according to the first quarter update of the Media Forecast from Pyramid Research (www.pyr.com), the telecom research arm of the Light Reading Communications Network (www.lightreading.com).
Pyramid Research's Media Forecasts are designed to provide competitive intelligence on the pay-TV and mobile TV dynamics for 52 countries, as well as regionally and globally. The Media Forecasts track demands patterns for free and pay-TV services over terrestrial, satellite, and mobile platforms worldwide, providing market share information at both the technology and operator levels, as well as five-year adoption and revenue projections. Download a template of this forecast here: http://www.pyramidresearch.com/downloads.htm?id=2&sc=PR050609_FCMED
Considering the current estimates of a 6 percent decline in global nominal GDP* in 2009, the adoption levels for pay-TV services will undoubtedly hit a speed bump worldwide, with year-over-year growth rate declining to 8 percent from 11 percent in 2008, notes Ozgur Aytar, research manager at Pyramid Research. Lower double-digit growth rates expected across the emerging regions coupled with the stabilizing effect of multiplay bundles and their increasing penetration particularly in mature pay-TV markets should, however, prevent the global subscriber base to take a nose dive. "We started the year with a great sense of uncertainty of the impact of the economic downturn on the pay-TV market, and while much uncertainty remains, pay-TV operators' first-quarter results published to date have not been so bad after all. Most continue to add subscribers, and those that are losing customers are doing so largely as a result of the entry of new competitors," says Aytar.
"The more significant impact of the recession will be felt in customer spending on pay-TV services in 2009, as operators have increasingly been rolling out lower, "economy" pay-TV and multiplay bundle tariffs to respond to mounting customer demand for less expensive services and to retain subscribers," explains Aytar. "By our estimates, average expenditure per pay-TV household will decrease by 6 percent in 2009 worldwide and by as much as 20 percent in some of the emerging markets," she adds.
Cable TV operators are expected to generate more than half of the global pay-TV revenue in 2009. The prospects for IPTV platforms appear to be most promising across the Western European markets, where IPTV subscribers are projected to account for 15 percent of total pay-TV base by year-end. Elsewhere, IPTV's share of subscribers will remain less than 5 percent of the total market. "The slowdown in the global economy has hit both capex and the speed of broadband network deployments in emerging markets. In order to manage through the perfect storm, operators are scaling back their capex by as much as 20 to 30 percent, and most are holding back on expansion plans but rather focusing on increasing operational leverage in existing markets, which in return is negatively affecting the availability of IPTV services" says Aytar.
Download a template of this forecast here: http://www.pyramidresearch.com/downloads.htm?id=2&sc=PR050609_FCMED
This Media Forecast is part of Pyramid Research's Forecast Services. Based on rigorous and time-tested research methodology and data modeling, Pyramid's Forecast Services stand as the communications industry's most reliable and robust forecasting tools. Clients have access to 1,200-plus key market indicators updated quarterly covering the mobile, fixed, and convergence sectors for nearly 100 countries, including detailed operating metrics for more than 400 operators worldwide. Each Pyramid Forecast Service delivers five-year projections for key operational and performance indicators, market share metrics, and service demand tracking at both the operator and country levels.
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*According to Economist Intelligence Unit data published in February 2009. About Pyramid Research
Pyramid Research (www.pyr.com) offers practical solutions to the complex demands our clients face in the telecommunications, media and technology industries. Our analysis is uniquely positioned at the intersection of emerging markets, emerging technologies and emerging business models, powered by the bottom-up methodology of our market forecasts for over 100 countries-a distinction that has remained unmatched for more than 25 years. As the telecom research arm of the Light Reading Communications Network, Pyramid Research works with Heavy Reading, providing the communications industry's most comprehensive market data, trusted research and insightful technology analysis.
About Light Reading
Founded in 2000, Light Reading (www.lightreading.com) is the leading online media, research, and focused event company serving the $3 trillion worldwide communications market. Lightreading.com is the ultimate source for technology and financial analysis of the communications industry, leading the media sector in terms of traffic, content, and reputation. Light Reading's research arms, Heavy Reading and Pyramid Research, provide the most comprehensive communications research, market data, and technology analysis in close to 100 markets around the world. Light Reading produces nearly 20 targeted communications events including TelcoTV, Ethernet Expo New York and Ethernet Expo London, The Tower Summit @ CTIA, and Optical Expo, as well as focused one-day events tailored for cable, mobile, and wireline executives. Light Reading was acquired by United Business Media in August 2005 and operates as a unit of TechWeb.
TechWeb (http://techweb.com/aboutus), the global leader in business technology media, is an innovative business focused on serving the needs of technology decision-makers and marketers worldwide. TechWeb produces the most respected and consumed media brands in the business technology market. Today, more than 13.3 million* business technology professionals actively engage in our communities created around our global face-to-face events, Interop, Web 2.0, Black Hat, and VoiceCon; online resources such as the TechWeb Network, Light Reading, Intelligent Enterprise, InformationWeek.com, bMighty.com, and The Financial Technology Network; and the market leading, award-winning InformationWeek, TechNet Magazine, MSDN Magazine, and Wall Street & Technology magazines. TechWeb also provides end-to-end services including next-generation performance marketing, integrated media, research, and analyst services. TechWeb is a division of United Business Media, a global provider of news distribution and specialist information services with a market capitalization of more than $2.5 billion.
*13.3 million business decision-makers: based on number of monthly connections
About United Business Media Limited
UBM (UBM.L) focuses on two principal activities: worldwide information distribution, targeting and monitoring; and, the development and monetization of B2B communities and markets. UBM's businesses inform markets and serve professional commercial communities - from doctors to game developers, from journalists to jewelry traders, from farmers to pharmacists - with integrated events, online, print and business information products. Our 6,500 staff in more than 30 countries are organized into specialist teams that serve these communities, bringing buyers and sellers together, helping them to do business and their markets to work effectively and efficiently. For more information, go to http://www.unitedbusinessmedia.com/.
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